Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
